All-weather M&A maven’s legacy is hit by a storm
CHRW•C.H. Robinson agreed to acquire RXO for $5.8 billion, and RXO’s stock fell 15%. The deal comes as freight-market volatility weighs on RXO and analysts expect it to post an operating loss in 2026.
1. Freight market pressures
RXO, spun off from XPO in 2022, has faced volatile demand, changing consumer habits and shifts in trucking capacity. Spot flatbed rates rose from around $2.20 per mile to nearly a dollar higher in July before falling back, while the Cass Freight Index remains depressed and diesel costs rose sharply. Analysts expect RXO to post an operating loss in 2026.
2. Deal terms and returns
C.H. Robinson agreed to acquire RXO for $5.8 billion. RXO investors will receive $17.25 per share in cash and 0.0856 shares of C.H. Robinson stock. C.H. Robinson projects $300 million in synergies; adding those to RXO’s expected 2027 operating profit of $120 million implies a 6% return after taxes, while C.H. Robinson focuses on 2028 expectations.
