Alphabet’s 65% Rally Fueled by AI Lead, Now Trades at 30x Forward Earnings

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Alphabet shares climbed about 65% in 2025 after its generative AI push with Gemini and emerging status as an AI leader. Trading around 30 times forward earnings, the stock’s prior undervaluation has normalized, leading analysts to forecast more modest yet positive returns in 2026.

1. Strong Q3 Revenue Growth and Expanding Cloud Business

Alphabet reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $102.3 billion, up 16 % year-over-year, driven by double-digit gains across its core ad-supported Google Services. Search and YouTube each delivered robust growth, while the Google Cloud division posted an even stronger 34 % revenue increase to $15.2 billion. Cloud now represents roughly 15 % of total sales and is earning strategic importance in the company’s long-term investment thesis. Management raised its full-year capital expenditure outlook to $91–$93 billion to support data center expansion, underscoring the priority placed on infrastructure for both cloud and AI workloads.

2. AI Leadership Fuels 65 % Stock Rally and Shapes 2026 Outlook

Over the past year, Alphabet shares have climbed approximately 65 % as the company transitioned from an AI underdog to a clear leader. Its Gemini generative AI models have gained rapid adoption, outpacing early competitors and solidifying Google’s competitive moat. Quantum computing research also advanced during 2025, laying groundwork for longer-term breakthroughs. With the stock now trading at about 30 times forward earnings—near parity with peers—investors should temper expectations for a repeat of last year’s outsized gains. However, ongoing AI feature rollouts, expanded enterprise partnerships in Google Cloud, and continued progress in quantum research provide multiple catalysts that could sustain above-market growth in 2026.

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