Aluminium falls to a 12-week low on stronger dollar
XLB•Aluminium fell 1.5% to $3,121 a metric ton, after touching a 12-week low of $3,116, as the dollar strengthened and trading volumes were thin. Macquarie lowered its forecast for this year’s global aluminium deficit to 820,000 tons.
1. Prices hit recent lows
Benchmark three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange was down 1.5% at $3,121 a metric ton after reaching $3,116, its lowest since July 7. Copper fell 1.1% to $14,254.50 a ton after touching its lowest since September 17. The dollar reached a more than three-month high, while trading was thin as China’s markets were closed for a public holiday.
2. Supply outlook shifts
Aluminium prices are down 17% since reaching a four-year high in June, as worries about Gulf supply eased and expectations grew for new Indonesian capacity. Macquarie cut its estimate for this year’s global aluminium deficit by 120,000 tons to 820,000 tons, citing faster-than-expected restarts in the Middle East. It said the market is relatively tight in the near term but is on track for a 410,000-ton surplus in 2027, and forecast average prices of $3,050 in 2027 versus $3,325 this year.
3. Other metals and supply
Rio Tinto reached agreements to keep its Bell Bay Aluminium smelter in Tasmania operating through the end of 2031. Supervisors at Chile’s Escondida copper mine rejected a collective contract offer, paving the way for a potential strike. Zinc fell 2%, while lead, tin and nickel also edged lower.
