Amazon Eyed to Beat $1.65 Q1 EPS as AI Capex Surges Toward 90% of Cash Flow
Amazon is set to report Q1 earnings today with prediction market traders assigning a 96% probability of exceeding the $1.65 consensus EPS. Analysts and investors will scrutinize Amazon's AI and cloud infrastructure spending as hyperscaler capex among major peers is forecast to rise from 50% of operating cash flow in 2024 to nearly 90% by 2027.
1. Q1 Earnings and Beat Probability
Polymarket and Kalshi traders are pricing in a 96% chance that Amazon will top consensus Q1 EPS estimates of $1.65, reflecting strong investor confidence ahead of the release.
2. AI and Cloud Infrastructure Spending Trends
Amazon joins other hyperscalers in expanding AI and cloud capital expenditures, with industry-wide capex rising from 50% of operating cash flow in 2024 to almost 90% by 2027 as companies ramp data center investments.
3. Simultaneous Reports and Market Volatility
The near-simultaneous earnings reports from Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are poised to shape broader AI sector sentiment, creating potential volatility as investors compare results and assess which companies are generating returns from their infrastructure outlays.