AMD Shares Rally 4% After Intel’s Supply Crunch Spurs Chip Demand

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AMD shares rose 3.8% on January 23 after Intel warned that Q1 supply constraints would hit chip shipments before improving in Q2. With AI chip demand remaining strong, AMD is poised to gain market share and benefit from higher pricing power and margin expansion.

1. AMD’s Remarkable 2025 Rally

Advanced Micro Devices outpaced its largest rival in 2025, delivering a 77% total return compared with a 39% gain for Nvidia. This divergence accelerated in the second half of the year, driven by AMD’s execution in high-performance computing. Over that period, AMD’s stock more than doubled Nvidia’s return, reflecting growing investor confidence in its ability to translate design wins into rapid revenue growth.

2. Data Center Division Fuels Growth

AMD’s Data Center segment generated record quarterly revenue of $4.3 billion in Q3 2025, up 22% year-over-year. Management projects more than 60% compound annual growth in this division over the next several years, underpinned by strong demand for 5th Gen EPYC processors and Instinct accelerators. The MI300 series ramp exceeded initial forecasts, and the recent MI355X launch has been lauded for its performance-per-dollar advantage in inference workloads, helping AMD win incremental share among hyperscalers grappling with supply constraints elsewhere.

3. Strategic Partnerships and Product Roadmap

AMD secured a multi-year agreement with OpenAI to deploy six gigawatts of compute capacity for its next-generation AI infrastructure. Additional collaborations with Microsoft, Meta and Oracle for custom deployments have broadened AMD’s ecosystem and validated its technology roadmap. At CES 2026, the company unveiled its MI400 series accelerators and Helios rack solutions for exascale applications, positioning itself to capitalize on the faster-growing AI inference market.

4. Valuation and 2026 Outlook

As AMD prepares to report Q4 2025 results on February 3, analysts expect revenue of $9.65 billion (up 26% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.32 (a 21.1% improvement). Despite the strong 2025 run, AMD trades at a forward multiple comparable to peers, reflecting confidence in continued margin expansion driven by an increasing AI mix. With consensus projecting mid-30% total revenue growth for fiscal 2026 and further gains in data center profitability, investors have a clear catalyst schedule through early February’s earnings release.

Sources

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