American Beacon survey shows managers expect S&P 500 to rise 0%-10% in H2 2026
SPY•In a survey of 34 sub-advisers, 65% expected the S&P 500 to rise 0%-10% in the second half of 2026. Most put U.S. recession odds at 25% or less, while energy prices, inflation and AI valuations were among their concerns.
1. Market expectations
American Beacon Advisors surveyed 34 sub-advisers about their outlook for the second half of 2026. Sixty-five percent expected the S&P 500 to rise 0%-10%.
2. Risks and concerns
Eighty-eight percent placed the odds of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months at 25% or less, and none put them above 50%. Middle East escalation tied to energy prices was cited as a risk by 52%, while 63% flagged 5% headline CPI as a trigger. AI valuation risk ranked second; respondents rated the AI trade 3.7 out of 5 on a bubble scale, although 84% said they used AI tools.
3. Bond-market risk
Respondents focused on the 10-year U.S. Treasury as a bond-market risk. About 10% set a 4.75% warning level, and nearly half set one at 5%.
