AMG National Trust Bank warns AI investment delays could trigger market correction
SPY•AMG National Trust Bank warned that an 18- to 36-month delay in expected AI investment returns could trigger an AI investment collapse, a broader market correction and a GDP demand shock. AI-linked companies account for 45% of S&P 500 market capitalization, while the five largest US hyperscalers are expected to spend $775 billion to $800 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026.
1. AI investment risks
AMG National Trust Bank warned that an 18- to 36-month delay in expected AI investment returns could trigger an AI investment collapse, a broader market correction and a GDP demand shock. AI-linked companies account for 45% of S&P 500 market capitalization.
2. Spending and revenue figures
The five largest US hyperscalers are expected to spend $775 billion to $800 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026. Goldman Sachs estimates that $1 trillion in AI revenue by 2030 would be needed for a 15% return, compared with approximately $100 billion currently annualized.
3. Debt financing
Hyperscalers issued $136 billion in corporate debt in 2025, while another $120 billion financed data center construction through off-balance-sheet special-purpose vehicles.
