Amperon says El Niño clouds could lift southern US power prices in winter 2026-2027
XLU•Amperon warned that El Niño-related cloud cover could reduce solar generation and lift southern US power prices in winter 2026-2027. Its forecasts put ERCOT’s winter peak near 78 GW, versus a median of 63 GW, and PJM’s upper-end peak at 141 GW, versus a median of 120 GW.
1. Winter supply risks
Amperon warned that El Niño-related cloud cover could reduce solar generation and lift US power prices in winter 2026-2027. Reduced battery charging could tighten evening supply in California, while simultaneous solar weakness and wind lulls pose scarcity risks in Texas. Dry northern conditions could also reduce hydropower supply into summer 2027, potentially cutting exports to California and Canadian deliveries to the Northeast.
2. Peak demand forecasts
Forecasts dated October 23, 2026, put ERCOT’s winter peak near 78 GW, compared with a median of about 63 GW. PJM’s upper-end winter peak forecast reaches about 141 GW, versus a median near 120 GW, with supply margins already tight.
