Analysis-Fuel swings turn US airline earnings forecasts into moving targets

A rapid rise in jet fuel prices is forcing U.S. airlines to rewrite earnings expectations, exposing how quickly higher fuel costs can outpace revenue gains from strong travel demand. American Airlines AAL.O was prepared to raise its 2026 earnings forecast earlier this month. Thirteen days later, after its projected fuel bill for the rest of the year had risen by nearly $1.6 billion, it cut the outlook instead. The reversal reflects a fundamental mismatch in the airline business. Fuel markets can move sharply in days, but fare increases take weeks or months to feed through because they apply only to tickets yet to be sold. Strong demand and restrained capacity have allowed carriers to raise fares without hurting bookings, but higher ticket prices have offset only part of the increase in fuel costs. As the U.S.-Iran ceasefire began to fray, jet fuel spot prices surged nearly 30% between July 2 and July 22, clouding the industry's outlook. American said higher fares offset nearly half of a $2.2 billion year-over-year increase in second-quarter fuel expense. Delta recovered about 60% of its fuel increase, while United recovered about 50%. Alaska said it recovered very little, and Southwest did not disclose a comparable percentage. But the renewed surge in fuel prices is testing how quickly carriers can recover the additional costs. May said American's projected fuel bill for the rest of the year rose by about $550 million over the past week. Every one-cent increase in American's average fuel price adds about $46 million to its annual expense and flows largely through to pretax earnings, May said. A 10-cent increase would therefore cost roughly $460 million. United described a similar last-minute shift. "At this time last week, I was planning to tell you that we had a good line of sight to growing earnings year-over-year," Chief Executive Scott Kirby said on the airline's July 16 earnings call. "But fuel has gone up a lot in the last week." United said the rise in fuel prices since July 1 added $575 million to its expected third-quarter fuel bill and changed its guidance policy to use the latest available fuel prices. At Alaska, bookings for September and October remained as strong as summer demand, but its earnings outlook remained highly sensitive to fuel prices. "You've got to choose a fuel price," Ryan St. John, Alaska's vice president of finance, planning and investor relations, told Reuters. "You can guess at whatever you think fuel is, but the reality is none of us know." A 25-cent change in Alaska's average fuel cost could shift quarterly earnings by about 50 cents per share, he said. May said American aims to pass on as much of any fuel-cost increase as possible. But the share it can recover remains a moving target. "It depends on the day for spot prices," he said. (Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh; Editing by Jamie Freed) "I think margins are going to be effectively down for the industry," American Chief Financial Officer Devon May told Reuters in an interview. "If we had guided on the same day as Delta (July 10), we'd have been guiding up for the year." In early July, he said, American had expected full-year pretax earnings approaching $1.5 billion, about four times its 2025 result. Instead, American lowered its full-year earnings forecast to a range stretching from a loss to a profit, with breakeven at the midpoint. The stakes are higher at American. Its thinner margins and persistent profit gap with Delta Air Lines DAL.N and United Airlines UAL.O leave it with less room to absorb higher fuel costs, intensifying scrutiny of CEO Robert Isom's effort to rebuild corporate travel, add premium seats and generate more revenue from the loyalty program. American cut its outlook despite reporting record quarterly revenue and forecasting strong unit revenue growth in the second half. If fuel remains elevated, weaker cash generation could slow debt reduction, constrain investment and increase pressure to trim less-profitable flying. Airlines have responded differently to the fuel surge, partly reflecting when their forecasts were issued. Delta, the first major U.S. carrier to report, maintained its annual earnings outlook, while United last week raised the lower end of its forecast. But this week, Southwest Airlines LUV.N lowered the floor of its outlook and Alaska Air ALK.N declined to restore full-year guidance. The forecasts were built on fuel assumptions from different dates, ranging from July 2 for Delta to July 21 for American. Over that period, jet fuel spot prices rose by 78 cents to $3.59 a gallon, making outlooks issued only days apart harder to compare and shortening their useful lives.

Analysis-Fuel swings turn US airline earnings forecasts into moving targets

Jet fuel surge upends airline profit forecasts

Rapidly changing fuel assumptions pressure guidance

Booking strength remains, but fuel stays a moving target

Airlines respond differently as forecast timing changes comparisons

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