Tesla’s lead in autonomous driving is under pressure as Nvidia enters the market with its Alpamayo platform, which promises unsupervised autonomy that analysts expect to be rapidly adopted by automakers. Whereas Tesla has relied on its vision-only Full Self-Driving (FSD) stack, industry partners such as Hyundai and ride-hailing services are signaling interest in Nvidia’s chip-and-software ecosystem. This shift could force Tesla to accelerate hardware revisions—potentially its next silicon generation—and deepen software investments to maintain differentiation against a rival whose GPUs benefit from massive capital-expenditure commitments across tech and government sectors.

Renowned bear Gordon Johnson of GJL Research reiterated a forecast that Tesla shares could plunge roughly 95%, citing the company’s underwhelming delivery performance and repeated unmet self-driving timetables. In calendar 2025, Tesla shipped 1.63 million vehicles, losing its status as the world’s largest electric-vehicle maker to BYD, which delivered 2.26 million units. Johnson argues that Musk’s optics-only autonomy approach has deterred licensing deals—Hyundai declined to source FSD—and that unspectacular delivery growth fails to justify the premium valuation investors have historically placed on Tesla as both an EV and AI pioneer.

After a volatile session, Tesla shares rose around 1.1% midweek as investors recalibrated expectations in light of mounting rivals in AI, autonomy and robotics. Market participants highlighted that while delivery figures disappointed relative to peers, Tesla’s ability to maintain gross margins near 20% and generate positive free cash flow continues to underpin its equity. The rally reflects a broader debate over whether Tesla should be valued chiefly as a traditional automaker or as a leader in next-generation vehicle intelligence.