Analyst Upgrades Coinbase on Stock Trading Launch, Valued at ~15x EBITDA

COINCOIN

Seeking Alpha analyst Gary Alexander upgraded Coinbase to 'Buy', citing the platform's expansion into stock trading as a revenue diversification catalyst that supports a valuation of around 15x EBITDA. He points to Robinhood's more than 100% rise in trading volumes over the past year as evidence of multi-asset demand potential.

1. Long-Term Thesis Intact Ahead Of Q4

Coinbase continues to leverage its position as the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, reporting average daily spot trading volumes of $4.5 billion in Q3, a 28% year-over-year increase. Institutional assets under custody surpassed $90 billion, up from $60 billion a year earlier, reflecting growing adoption by hedge funds and corporate treasuries. The company’s revenue mix remains diversified: 62% derived from transaction fees, 23% from subscription and services, and 15% from staking and other products. Management forecasts full-year adjusted EBITDA of roughly $1.2 billion, reinforcing confidence in sustained profitability as market turnover accelerates into Q4.

2. Regulatory Clarity Fuels Institutional Adoption

Recent guidance from the Securities and Exchange Commission has clarified compliance standards for spot crypto trading, reducing counterparty risk for large investors. In September, Coinbase secured a specialized banking charter for its institutional arm, enabling direct settlement and lending services valued at over $15 billion. The company has also attracted 75 new institutional clients since April, including two major asset managers with $1 trillion in combined AUM. This regulatory progress underpins expectations for an additional 20% uptick in institutional trading volumes by mid-year.

3. Expansion Into Stock Trading Strengthens Valuation Case

In July, Coinbase launched a U.S. equities trading product that processed $800 million in customer orders within its first month, tapping into its 110 million verified users. Analysts have upgraded the stock to a buy rating, citing a pro forma valuation of approximately 15x adjusted EBITDA, compared to 12x for peers in the fintech sector. The new offering contributes to a strategic goal of achieving 10% of total revenue from non-crypto trading by the end of next year, enhancing revenue stability and broadening the company’s total addressable market.

Sources

SSC