NuScale Power remains the only U.S. developer with Nuclear Regulatory Commission certification for its small modular reactor design, giving it a clear first-mover edge. However, the company has yet to secure a binding customer contract. Potential deals with RoPower in Romania and ENTRA1 Energy within the Tennessee Valley Authority system have been discussed for over two years without reaching definitive terms. Management’s ability to convert these memoranda of understanding into firm orders will be the single most important viability indicator for investors over the next 12 months.

After peaking with a year-to-date gain of roughly 200%, NuScale’s share price has retraced sharply, falling approximately 75% from its high and dropping 30% in December alone. In its latest quarter, the company reported a net loss of $532 million and recorded revenue of just over $8 million, falling short of consensus estimates by more than $3 million. NuScale ended the period with approximately $754 million in cash and equivalents, of which roughly $475 million was raised through the sale of 13.2 million new shares earlier in the year.

Investor concerns about future dilution intensified in mid-December when shareholders approved doubling the number of authorized shares from 332 million to 662 million. While no new issuance has been announced, this change grants management the flexibility to raise additional capital through equity offerings if needed to fund further reactor development or working capital requirements. The prospect of dilution remains a key risk factor that could pressure the stock if execution timelines slip or cash burn accelerates.

Seventeen brokerages currently cover NuScale Power, issuing a consensus recommendation of “Reduce.” Among those firms, five analysts rate the stock as a sell, eight as hold and four as buy. The average 12-month price target across all analysts stands at $35.18, implying modest upside from current levels but reflecting concerns over order execution and financing risks. Investors may view changes in analyst sentiment as a barometer for tangible progress on first-customer agreements.