Micron Q1 Revenue Up 20% and EPS Soars 167%, Targets Raised to $360 and $450
Micron’s fiscal Q1 revenue rose 20% to $13.6B and adjusted EPS jumped 167% to $4.78 as AI-driven shortages boosted HBM market share by 10pp. Stifel and TD Cowen lifted price targets to $360 and $450, supported by a $20B capex increase and New York megafab groundbreaking.
1. Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Exceed Expectations
Micron reported fiscal first-quarter results (ended November 27, 2025) that significantly beat consensus estimates on both revenue and earnings. Revenue rose 20% year-over-year to USD 13.6 billion, driven by robust demand for both DRAM and NAND flash products. Non-GAAP gross margin expanded by 17 percentage points, reflecting strong pricing power across memory and storage portfolios. Adjusted earnings per share climbed 167% to USD 4.78, underscoring the company’s ability to translate tight market conditions into improved profitability.
2. AI-Driven Supply Shortage Intensifies
CEO Sanjay Mehrotra highlighted an “unprecedented” memory chip shortage caused by hyperscale AI build-outs, noting customer forecasts have risen sharply over recent quarters. High-bandwidth memory (HBM) orders increased by 10 percentage points of market share in the past year, as Micron capitalizes on its capacity to supply AI training clusters. To address ongoing scarcity, the company raised its annual capital expenditure plan from USD 18 billion to USD 20 billion, with new fabrication facilities breaking ground in New York and accelerated expansion of its Idaho campus scheduled through 2027.
3. Analyst Upgrades Reinforce Bullish Outlook
Multiple sell-side firms reiterated buy ratings and lifted price targets following Micron’s strong earnings and supply-constrained backdrop. Stifel increased its one-year target by 20% citing the acquisition of a chip fab and sustained memory price appreciation, while TD Cowen boosted its target by 50%, forecasting explosive earnings growth driven by AI chip demand. Counterpoint Research projects memory-chip prices will continue rising through 2026, a view that supports consensus estimates for a 37% annual increase in Micron’s earnings through fiscal 2029.
4. Sustained Shareholder Gains Reflect Structural Tailwinds
Since January 2023, Micron shares have surged over 600%, outpacing broader semiconductor indices as investors price in long-term scarcity of DRAM and NAND supply. Trading volume spiked notably on January 20, 2026, when a Power Inflow alert—a key order-flow indicator—was triggered following a 6% intraday pullback, signaling institutional accumulation. Over the past decade, Micron has delivered a cumulative return exceeding 3,000%, driven largely by its leadership in high-bandwidth memory for AI applications and disciplined capital investment strategy.