United Airlines is set to release fourth-quarter results after the closing bell on Jan. 20, with investors closely watching guidance for 2026 capacity, unit revenue forecasts and fuel cost assumptions. Following Delta’s cautious outlook last week, analysts lowered expectations for United’s Q4 adjusted EPS to a range of $1.40–$1.60, down from $1.75 a quarter ago. The consensus calls for revenue of roughly $12.3 billion, reflecting a sequential increase of 2%, but Puerto Rico air traffic disruptions and rising jet fuel prices have heightened scrutiny of United’s ability to maintain its domestic load factor above 85%.

Despite the anticipated year-over-year EPS decline, Wall Street’s average price target for United has climbed from $138.44 in Q3 to $144.80 last month, and stands at $146.20 today – up nearly 19% from $123.04 a year ago. Of the 28 analysts covering UAL, 20 now carry Buy ratings, citing improvements in unit cost control and a fleet renewal program focused on Boeing 787 Dreamliners. Three of the most accurate industry forecasters have raised their full-year 2025 earnings estimates by an average of 5% over the past two weeks, driven by a stronger dollar hedging program and anticipated higher premium cabin revenue on trans-Pacific routes.

United has accelerated its Dreamliner deliveries, adding 12 Boeing 787-9s to the network in 2025 and boosting widebody capacity by 8% year-over-year. Management’s plan to install new cockpit voice recorders and expand Polaris lounges in London and Tokyo is expected to enhance customer experience and ancillary revenue by up to $150 million annually. However, geopolitical tensions in Asia and labor negotiations with mechanics unions pose downside risks. Fuel hedges cover only 40% of UAL’s 2026 requirements at an average strike of $76 per barrel, leaving earnings exposed if Brent crude surpasses $90 for an extended period.