ANZ flags renewed global grain supply risks as drought, Black Sea disruption tighten wheat outlook
DBA•Renewed grain supply risks
ANZ analysis flagged renewed global grain supply risks from drought in major producers, echoing drivers behind the 2022 price surge.
Dry conditions in the US and Europe cut output prospects, with high-protein wheat most affected.
Australia crop outlook improves
Australia’s winter crop outlook improved, raising prospects for another large harvest, with hard wheat positioned to benefit from global shortages.
Black Sea disruption and trade flows
Black Sea conflict-related disruption constrained exports from Ukraine and Russia, tightening global trade flows.
Softer demand growth since 2022, with relatively comfortable wheat carry-over stocks, helped limit price reactions despite supply concerns.
