ANZ raises December 31 Brent price view to $105 a barrel
USO•ANZ raised its December 31 Brent crude price forecast to $105 a barrel from $95, citing physical constraints it expects to persist through year-end. It said escalation in the Iran conflict could push prices to $120 or above, while a diplomatic breakthrough and improved shipping could bring Brent back to $90–$95.
1. Higher Brent forecast
ANZ raised its December 31 Brent crude price forecast to $105 a barrel from $95, saying physical constraints keeping the oil market tight are unlikely to dissipate before year-end.
2. Supply and price risks
ANZ said a material escalation in the Iran conflict could lift oil prices to $120 a barrel or above. A credible diplomatic breakthrough accompanied by a material improvement in shipping conditions could see Brent move back towards $90–$95. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz was operating at roughly 60% of normal levels, the bank said, making it increasingly challenging to get producers’ spare output capacity to market.
3. Next geopolitical catalyst
ANZ said the US midterm elections on November 3 represent the next major geopolitical catalyst for oil markets, with the prospect of renewed hostilities afterward adding uncertainty to an already fragile physical market.
