Apple Sees 10.6% Revenue Growth to $137.5B with 21.8% China Market Share
Apple Q1 revenue is expected at $137.5 billion (+10.6% YoY) and EPS of $2.67 (+11.2% YoY), with investors focused on iPhone demand in China, services margins and AI integration ahead of Thursday’s earnings. Q4 shipments in China reached 21.8% market share (+28% YoY), though Greater China revenue dropped to $14.5 billion.
1. G Squared Private Wealth Sees Apple as a Safe Haven without Hyperscaler Risk
Victoria Greene, Chief Investment Officer at G Squared Private Wealth, told The Exchange that Apple’s stock stands out in today’s market because it carries no direct exposure to hyperscaler cloud spending cycles. Greene highlighted that while shares of Google parent Alphabet and Microsoft have surged on AI infrastructure bets, they also face execution risk on rising capital expenditures and capacity constraints. By contrast, Apple’s business model—driven by device sales, recurring services revenue, and a $700 billion cash and liquid securities balance—provides investors with a lower-volatility alternative, according to Greene’s analysis.
2. Hardware Chief John Ternus Emerges as Leading CEO Successor
In a strategic personnel move, Apple has widened the remit of hardware engineering head John Ternus to include responsibility for industrial design, a shift Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman told colleagues Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow signals the board’s preference for Ternus as the eventual successor to CEO Tim Cook. Insiders point out that Ternus’s new portfolio unites the two divisions most critical to Apple’s product innovation pipeline—engineering and design—underscoring his influence over both the iPhone and mixed-reality headset road maps.
3. Upcoming Earnings Week Puts Spotlight on iPhone Demand and AI Integration
Apple reports fiscal first-quarter results Thursday at 4:30 PM ET, with InvestingPro data projecting adjusted EPS growth of 11.2% year-over-year and revenues of approximately $137.5 billion, up 10.6%. Analysts will focus on unit shipments in Greater China—where iPhone market share climbed 21.8% in Q4 2025, per Counterpoint Research—and margin trends in the Services segment, which accounts for roughly 20% of revenue. Investors will also seek clarity on the rollout timetable for Apple’s first AI features powered by Gemini, as the company works to catch up in generative-AI functionality.
4. Record Chinese Smartphone Shipments Reinforce Apple’s Global Leadership
Counterpoint Research data show that in Q4 2025, Apple captured a 21.8% share of China smartphone shipments—a 28% increase from Q4 2024—driven by early ramp of the iPhone 17 series and base models offering double the storage at unchanged pricing. That performance outpaced local brands Huawei and Vivo, whose shares fell by 13.7% and 12.9% respectively. The results suggest that even without onboard AI capabilities, Apple’s supply-chain management and product positioning remain robust in the world’s largest handset market.