Apple Inks Multiyear Deal to Use Gemini in Siri, Shares Face Hold Downgrade
Alphabet will partner with Apple to integrate its Gemini AI into Siri in spring 2026 under a multiyear deal, reinforcing its AI leadership and potential to monetize free users. RBC downgraded Alphabet to Hold, citing EV/EBITDA at 26x and a 1.8% free cash flow yield, flagging valuation risks.
1. Alphabet’s AI-Driven Rally and Market Leadership
Alphabet shares have surged roughly 64% over the past year and are up nearly 6% year to date, reflecting growing investor confidence in its artificial-intelligence strategy. The company’s Gemini large-language model now boasts 650 million monthly active users, and successive model upgrades have positioned Gemini as the highest-ranked AI assistant across multiple benchmarks. Alphabet’s AI initiatives extend beyond software: the firm has invested heavily in custom tensor-processing units (TPUs), allocating roughly $92 billion to capital expenditures in 2025 to scale AI infrastructure. This spending underscores management’s goal of securing leadership in both AI software and hardware, with the potential to drive monetization through enhanced search ads, new AI-powered applications and partnerships such as the recently announced multiyear integration of Gemini into Apple’s Siri platform.
2. Google Cloud’s Path to Profitability
Google Cloud has transitioned from a credibility play to a critical profit driver, with operating margins expanding from 17.1% to 23.7% in the third quarter of 2025. Revenue in the segment grew more than 30% year-over-year as enterprise AI workloads accelerated, and management expects further margin improvement as scale economies mitigate infrastructure costs. Alphabet’s roadmap calls for continued investment in specialized AI chips—codenamed Maia and Cobalt—and enhanced data-center efficiency. Analysts project Google Cloud revenue to compound at roughly 20% annually through 2028, positioning the unit to contribute meaningfully to overall earnings stability and reduce Alphabet’s reliance on its advertising business during economic downturns.
3. Balance Sheet Strength and Legal Settlement
Alphabet closed 2025 with over $100 billion in cash and marketable securities against roughly $20 billion in long-term debt, maintaining a fortress balance sheet that underpins ongoing AI and cloud investments. In January 2026, the company agreed to a $68 million preliminary settlement in a class-action lawsuit alleging that its voice assistant recorded private conversations without user consent. While Alphabet did not admit liability, the settlement avoids protracted litigation and reputational risk, allowing the company to refocus on product development and regulatory compliance. Management has stated that no material changes to its core operations are required, preserving cash flow for strategic R&D and infrastructure expansion.