Recent industry reports indicate that Apple’s flagship smartphone saw its market share in India rise to approximately 9% in 2025, up from 7% the previous year. Combined with earlier data showing robust holiday-quarter demand in China, this geographic diversification has underpinned expectations for record unit sales in the fiscal first quarter. Analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets and JPMorgan Chase have highlighted that these gains could translate into double-digit year-over-year growth in iPhone revenue for the December quarter, driven by supply chain efficiencies and pent-up consumer demand during a typically seasonally strong period.

Wall Street consensus forecasts call for Apple to deliver a modest beat on both revenue and operating income when it reports first-quarter results on January 29. Consensus projects iPhone revenue growth of around 16% year over year—the strongest expansion since late 2021—while Services revenue is expected to grow by roughly 7% to 10%. JPMorgan analysts recently raised their price target by 3% to reflect an improving risk-reward setup, citing favorable supply-contract pricing on memory components that should partially offset cost pressures and support gross margin stability near 47%.

In a multiyear agreement announced earlier this month, Apple will integrate Google’s Gemini foundation models into its upcoming AI features, including enhancements to its digital assistant and on-device intelligence functions. Industry sources estimate that Apple could spend several billion dollars over the next two years to secure compute capacity and licensing for this partnership. Wedbush analysts have identified this deal as a ‘major validation moment’ that positions Apple to leverage proven AI infrastructure while focusing R&D resources on user-centric applications rather than building foundational models in-house.