Apple Sees 8% Q4 Sales Growth, $90.7B Buybacks and 10–12% Holiday Revenue Forecast

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Apple grew sales 8% year over year in fiscal Q4 with services revenue up 15% and repurchased $90.7 billion of stock in fiscal 2025. Shares trade at a 33x forward P/E as management forecasts 10–12% revenue growth in the holiday quarter, driven by a strong iPhone cycle and services momentum.

1. Apple’s Fiscal 2025 Momentum

In its fiscal fourth quarter, the company delivered 8% year-over-year revenue growth and saw its services segment expand by 15%, outpacing the full-year services growth rate of 13.5%. Total annual revenue reached $416 billion, marking a substantial rebound from the prior year’s 2% sales increase. Strong free cash flow and a net cash position supported a record $90.7 billion in share repurchases and sustained dividend payouts. Despite trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 33, management forecasts 10%–12% revenue growth in the holiday quarter, driven by a robust iPhone upgrade cycle and continued double-digit services growth.

2. AI and Siri Challenges Heading into 2026

The company missed its planned rollout of a generative-AI upgrade to its voice assistant, leading to the departure of senior AI executives and raising concerns that Apple may fall behind peers in next-generation user interfaces. With the Siri overhaul now pushed into 2026, investors will watch closely whether the promised enhancements can drive upgrades among the installed base of more than 2 billion active devices. Success is critical for sustaining the hardware super-cycle narrative and justifying the current premium valuation, especially if Apple opts to leverage AI breakthroughs to maintain its competitive edge rather than introduce subscription fees for core intelligent services.

Sources

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