Apple Tops China Shipments with 21.8% Share in Q4 2025

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Counterpoint reports Apple captured 21.8% of China smartphone shipments in Q4 2025, up 28% year-over-year, driven by strong iPhone 17 series demand. Greater China revenue dipped from $15B to $14.5B year-over-year, signaling contrasting regional sales performance despite global iPhone unit growth.

1. Apple Signals CEO Succession Path by Expanding Hardware Chief’s Role

Apple has elevated John Ternus, its head of hardware engineering, to also oversee design functions, consolidating oversight of product development under a single executive. This move, confirmed in late January, positions Ternus—who has led flagship device launches since 2018—as a clear contender to succeed Tim Cook. Investors view the restructuring as a signal of continuity in Apple’s innovation pipeline, with Ternus now responsible for integrating industrial design, mechanical engineering, and hardware architecture teams supporting devices that generated over $190 billion in revenue last fiscal year.

2. Upcoming Earnings Test Growth Amid iPhone Dependence Concerns

As Apple approaches its fiscal second-quarter report, analysts forecast year-over-year revenue growth of approximately 10.6% to near $137.5 billion, driven primarily by iPhone demand, which still contributes roughly half of total sales. Services segment margins—historically near 70%—and AI integration plans into the operating system will draw scrutiny, with consensus EPS estimates up 11.2% compared to the prior year’s quarter. Despite downward revision of smartphone shipment forecasts in Greater China, leading firms expect Apple to deliver a modest upside to Street estimates on resilience in higher-end model sales.

3. China Market Share Soars to Multi-Year High

According to Counterpoint Research, Apple captured 21.8% of China’s smartphone shipments in Q4, marking a 28% increase year over year and securing the top position in the world’s largest market. This gain came at the expense of major local rivals, whose combined share declined over 25% from a year earlier. Counterpoint attributes the surge to strong uptake of the latest Pro lineup’s advanced camera systems and entry-level models offering doubled base storage at unchanged starting prices, reinforcing Apple’s premium positioning despite lacking an in-market AI assistant this quarter.

4. Technical Indicators Highlight Oversold Conditions and Analyst Conviction

Following a near 15% drawdown from its recent high, Apple’s relative strength index dipped to 18—its lowest reading since 2008—suggesting extreme oversold conditions ahead of earnings. Leading brokerages have collectively raised price targets by an average of over 20% in the past two weeks, with the most bullish forecasts implying upside north of 35%. Evercore’s recent upgrade to Outperform and Wedbush’s reaffirmation of a high-conviction bullish stance underscore market expectations that Apple’s long record of quarterly beats and robust capital return program will prompt a sharp rebound.

Sources

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