Apple’s iPhone Share in India Hits 9%; JPMorgan Boosts Target to $315
Apple’s iPhone market share in India rose to about 9% in 2025 from 7% in 2024, fueling a 3% stock uptick before its Jan. 29 Q1 earnings. JPMorgan increased its price target to $315, forecasting 16% iPhone revenue growth and 7% Services growth after a Gemini AI partnership.
1. New Product Launch and Analyst Upgrades
On Monday, Apple unveiled an updated AirTag featuring precision ultra-wideband tracking and extended battery life, driving a renewed wave of buy-side interest. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives described the launch as a “major validation moment” for Apple’s accessory ecosystem, while KeyBanc’s Brandon Nispel reiterated his outperform rating ahead of Thursday’s earnings release. The product refresh follows Apple’s deal announced earlier this month with Google to integrate Gemini-powered artificial intelligence features into Siri and Apple Intelligence, a move analysts say could accelerate adoption of AI-enabled devices without significantly increasing capital spending.
2. Mixed Performance within the ‘Magnificent 7’ and Upcoming Earnings Catalyst
Apple shares have been one of the two laggards in the Magnificent 7 group so far in 2026, trading in negative territory as investors weigh margin pressure from higher memory costs and the need for AI partnerships. With Tesla and Meta little changed and Microsoft also underperforming, Apple’s fiscal first-quarter results on Jan. 29 represent a key inflection point. Investors will focus on iPhone 17 sales trends during the December quarter—historically Apple’s strongest—and any commentary on Services growth, where consensus expects about 7% year-over-year App Store revenue expansion versus the company’s broader guidance of 14%.
3. iPhone Market Share Gains and Geographic Momentum
Recent third-party reports indicate Apple’s iPhone grew share in India to approximately 9%, up from 7% a year earlier, as the latest model resonated with price-sensitive consumers. Coupled with signs of robust demand in China, this geographic diversification has underpinned multiple analyst upgrades. JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee highlights Apple’s supply-chain resilience in absorbing higher component costs, and Goldman Sachs’ Michael Ng sees the momentum in emerging markets and services as a catalyst to drive double-digit smartphone revenue growth in fiscal 2026.
4. Valuation Reassessment by Major Banks
Following a 13% share price decline over the past two months versus a flat S&P 500, both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have raised their price targets—JPMorgan to $315 and Goldman to $320—while maintaining overweight and buy ratings. Banks point to a current forward multiple of roughly 30 times earnings, below historical peaks ahead of major iPhone cycles, and expect operating expenses to come in below guidance as AI partnership fees are deferred to the March quarter. With consensus forecasting modest revenue and earnings beats, the improved risk-reward profile suggests limited downside and potential for multiple expansion once investors see confirmation of stronger-than-expected iPhone and Services results.