AppLovin Plummets 41% YTD Despite 66% Q4 Revenue Surge to $1.66B
AppLovin shares have plunged over 40% in 2026 after 700% gains in 2024, weighed by a 16% drop on CloudX’s platform launch and a nearly 20% slide post-Q4 earnings despite Q4 revenue rising 66% to $1.66 billion and EPS jumping 87% to $3.24 with 52% guided growth. Trading at a forward P/E near 25x and boasting a 72% free cash flow margin, AppLovin has a consensus 12-month target of $652 implying 78% upside, while ABN Amro increased its stake by 27.7%, acquiring 1,900 shares to hold 8,767.
1. Stock Performance and Sell-Off
AppLovin shares have fallen over 40% year-to-date after reaching all-time highs at the start of 2026. A 16% one-day decline on February 4 followed CloudX’s platform launch, and a nearly 20% drop on February 12 reflected market reaction to the latest quarterly results.
2. Q4 Results and Guidance
In Q4 2025, AppLovin generated $1.66 billion in revenue, up 66% year-over-year, and delivered EPS of $3.24, an 87% increase. Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 84%, and the company guided next-quarter revenue of $1.76 billion (52% growth) with stable 84% margin.
3. Competitive Landscape
Investors are monitoring CloudX, founded by former MoPub and MAX leaders, as well as potential competition from Meta Platforms’ scale. Industry forecasts project a mobile ad market CAGR above 12% from 2025 to 2033, suggesting ample room for multiple players without drastic market-share shifts.
4. Valuation and Investor Positions
AppLovin trades at a forward P/E near 25x and has achieved a 72% free cash flow margin over the past 12 months. The $652 consensus price target implies 78% upside, and ABN Amro Investment Solutions boosted its position by 27.7%, acquiring 1,900 additional shares to hold 8,767 shares.