Over the past twelve months, ArcelorMittal’s shares have more than doubled in value, outpacing both the S&P 500’s 15% gain and the XME steel index’s 40% advance. This dramatic appreciation reflects growing investor confidence in the Luxembourg-based steelmaker’s ability to convert improving end-market demand into higher returns. Institutional ownership has risen to 64% from 58% a year ago, underscoring growing conviction among large allocators in MT’s growth trajectory.

In its latest quarter, ArcelorMittal reported underlying EBITDA of $4.2 billion, up 35% year-over-year, driven by higher steel selling prices and improved plant utilisation rates, which rose to 89% from 82% last year. Net debt declined by $1.1 billion sequentially, bringing the leverage ratio down to 1.2x EBITDA. Management attributes margin expansion to ongoing cost-saving programmes targeting $1 billion of annualised savings by mid-2026, including energy optimisation and procurement synergies unlocked by its acquisition of Essar Steel India.

Global steel consumption is projected to grow at 3.7% annually through 2028, led by infrastructure stimulus in the U.S. and China’s clean-energy build-out. ArcelorMittal expects its automotive shipments—approximately 18% of group tonnage—to rise 12% this year as new electric-vehicle models ramp up. Offsetting this growth, iron-ore and coking-coal prices remain elevated, with benchmark seaborne iron-ore at $120 per tonne and metallurgical coal at $240 per tonne. MT’s hedging programme has locked in 65% of expected 2026 coal needs at an average of $205 per tonne, mitigating some cost volatility.

Following the restoration of its dividend in Q3 2025, MT has paid out $0.20 per share every quarter, equivalent to a 2.8% yield based on the current share count of 1.28 billion. The company plans to direct 50% of free cash flow to dividends and share buybacks, with a $500 million repurchase authorization approved in December. On the sustainability front, MT aims to cut CO2 intensity by 30% by 2030 through investment in electric-arc furnaces and its ‘Greener Steel’ roadmap. As of year-end, 12% of output came from recycled-steel processes, up from 8% in 2023.