Archer Aviation went public through a SPAC merger in September 2021, beginning life as a high-profile eVTOL developer. The company forecasted production of ten aircraft in 2024 and ramping to 650 by 2027, with revenue growing from $42 million in 2024 to $3.4 billion in 2027. Instead, in 2024 Archer delivered a single test aircraft to the U.S. Air Force, generated negligible commercial revenue and recorded a net loss of $537 million. As of August 2025, only two commercial-spec eVTOLs had rolled off its production line, with six more units in assembly, illustrating a significant shortfall against its original targets.

Archer’s path to commercial operations hinges on multiple Federal Aviation Administration certifications and overseas clearances. To date, it has secured its maintenance and repair certificate as well as its air carrier and operator approval, but remains pending on type certification and production authorization—elements that analysts now estimate may not arrive until 2028. At the same time, its strategic manufacturing partnership with Stellantis has advanced more slowly than promised; production guidance of two aircraft per month by the end of 2025 now appears unlikely, putting the 650-aircraft annual goal for 2030 at risk.

Despite execution challenges, Archer has built an indicative backlog of $6 billion for roughly 1,200 aircraft as of late 2025, underpinned by commitments from United Airlines, Japan Airlines’ Future Flight joint venture, Ethiopian Airlines and Abu Dhabi Aviation. Its Midnight eVTOL, carrying one pilot and four passengers, targets short-range urban air taxi markets with a 100-mile range and top speed of 150 mph. Success in Abu Dhabi—where initial flights were deferred to 2026—could serve as a critical catalyst, although competition from better-specified rivals remains intense.

Analysts forecast Archer will generate $32 million in revenue in 2026 and $305 million in 2027 while narrowing its net loss from $718 million to $682 million. The company held $1.6 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of Q3 2025, but may require further equity dilution to fund ramped production and regulatory milestones. Valued at approximately 21 times projected 2027 sales, Archer’s share price upside over the next 12 months hinges on achieving its first commercial flights and accelerating output under its Stellantis agreement.