Argus Research Assigns $135 Price Target to United Airlines for 18.7% Upside
Argus Research’s John Staszak set a $135 price target for United Airlines, implying 18.66% upside from its January 22 closing price of $113.77. Despite a $250 million Q4 2025 impact from the U.S. government shutdown, United projects 2026 EPS of $13, supported by strong profitability and operational improvements.
1. Q4 Earnings and Revenue Beat Estimates
United Airlines reported record fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $15.4 billion, exceeding consensus forecasts by approximately 0.35%, and delivered earnings per share of $3.10. This EPS figure represented a 5.4% beat over analyst estimates, even as it was down about 4% year-over-year. The company attributed a $250 million pre-tax earnings headwind to the November government shutdown, underscoring operational resilience in challenging conditions.
2. Shift in Demand Dynamics
Premium cabins, corporate travel and loyalty programs drove much of United’s revenue growth, while main-cabin demand among lower-income consumers remained soft. Corporate ticket sales were reported to be high-single-digit percentage points above year-ago levels, with first-quarter 2026 earnings guidance pointing to a 37% year-over-year rise, reflecting strong business volumes.
3. Fleet Expansion Plans
To support sustained growth, United plans to take delivery of more than 100 narrowbody jets and around 20 widebody aircraft in 2026. This expansion is designed to enhance capacity flexibility across domestic and international routes and to address both premium and leisure segments as market conditions evolve.
4. Analyst Outlook and Valuation
Analysts maintain a consensus price target of $134.94 on United, implying over 21% upside from current levels. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of approximately 11.1× and a forward P/E near 8×, which compares favorably to its historical multiple. With eight analysts raising targets since the start of 2026—Citigroup leading with a $153 target—investors see both momentum-driven trading opportunities and longer-term accumulation potential in the $111–$116 range.