ARK Forecasts Custom AI Chips to Grab One-Third Compute Market by 2030, Nvidia Q4 Up 73%
ARK projects custom AI silicon will hold over one-third of the compute market by 2030, citing Amazon's $150 billion OpenAI investment and 2 GW Trainium commitment as emerging competition for Nvidia. Nvidia posted Q4 revenue of $68.13 billion, up 73% year-over-year, and set Q1 guidance of $76.44–$79.56 billion versus analysts' $71.96 billion estimate.
1. ARK Forecast and Custom Silicon Competition
ARK Investment Management's research division projects that custom AI chips—defined as non-GPU silicon alternatives to Nvidia and AMD products—will account for over one-third of the compute market by 2030. The forecast highlights Amazon's multi-year $150 billion commitment with OpenAI, underpinned by a 2 GW Trainium capacity pledge, alongside Google's TPU and emerging ASICs as intensifying rivals.
2. Nvidia Q4 Earnings and Guidance
Nvidia reported fourth-quarter revenue of $68.13 billion, a 73% increase year-over-year, exceeding the $66 billion consensus. The company issued first-quarter guidance of $76.44–$79.56 billion, surpassing analysts' $71.96 billion estimate, while shares declined 7.4% over the prior five days before a modest after-hours rebound.