Asian shares waver as oil and yields rise ahead of Fed, BOJ meetings

The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day meeting later in the day, with markets pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hike that would mark the Fed's first increase since mid-2023.

"While inflation continues to decelerate, recent upside surprises mean the pace of disinflation has been slower and less convincing than" the Fed likely requires, analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a report, expecting a 25 basis-point hike on Wednesday and in December.

"We see arguments for both a hike and a hold, but signs of second-round effects from energy prices, strong demand tied to AI-related investment, a neutral rate that is possibly temporarily higher, and concerns about credibility mean the balance of risks now argues for a somewhat more restrictive policy."

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% at the end of its two-day meeting on Friday and signal more tightening ahead. Policymakers are seeking to shore up the yen after intervention helped steer the currency away from a 40-year low.