ASML first registered a ‘‘Big Money’’ outlier inflow signal in January 1997. Since that date, the stock has compounded at an annualized rate of roughly 28%, translating into a cumulative gain of approximately 35,423%. This performance far outstrips the broader semiconductor index, which delivered around 9% annualized over the same period. The signal, generated when institutional buy flows exceeded three standard deviations above average, has historically marked the start of sustained uptrends in ASML’s shares.

ASML’s near-monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment underpins a backlog valued at €52 billion as of Q3 2025. EUV tools accounted for 48% of total revenue in the first nine months of fiscal 2025, up from 33% in the prior year. Management projects EUV installations to grow at a 20% compound annual rate through 2027, driven by foundry and memory customers shifting to 3nm and 2nm process nodes.

In the most recent trading session, ASML shares retraced by 1.06%, underperforming a broader European technology gauge that was essentially flat. Analysts attribute the dip to profit-taking after a 12% rally over the prior four weeks, as well as concerns over potential U.S. export restrictions on advanced lithography. Despite the setback, average daily volume remained 15% above the 90-day norm, suggesting buyers are still active at lower levels.

ASML reported Q3 2025 revenue of €8.7 billion, up 22% year-over-year, with non-IFRS net margin expanding to 31.5%, compared with 28.9% in Q3 2024. Management reiterated full-year guidance for €32.5–33.5 billion in sales and raised its margin outlook by 100 basis points, reflecting better productivity and higher-value system mix. Consensus forecasts for 2026 revenue stand at €38.2 billion, implying 14% growth, while non-IFRS margins are expected to exceed 33%.