ASML targets 60% gross margins by 2030 with EUV and High-NA shift

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ASML plans to increase shipments of next-generation EUV and develop High-NA lithography systems to capture advanced chip demand. Management forecasts gross margins rising toward 60% by 2030 as the product mix shifts to these premium offerings.

1. Product Mix Shift to Advanced EUV and High-NA Technology

ASML is targeting a significant uplift in gross margins by pivoting its product portfolio towards extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems and the next-generation High-NA EUV platform. Management forecasts that EUV systems will represent roughly 45% of total system revenues by 2030, up from about 25% in 2024, and that High-NA shipments—currently in pilot production—will ramp to 15 units per year by decade’s end. This shift, combined with tighter cost controls and higher utilization of proprietary light sources, is expected to drive gross margins from the mid-50% range today to as high as 60% by 2030.

2. Q4 2025 Earnings Preview and Investor Considerations

ASML is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 28 before markets open. Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv expect system sales to grow approximately 12% year-on-year, supported by strong demand from leading foundries in Taiwan and South Korea. The company’s backlog stood at €30.2 billion at the end of the prior quarter, up 8% sequentially, reflecting continued interest in advanced node lithography. Investors will focus on commentary around capital-expenditure cycles from major customers, order intake for High-NA systems, and any updates on supply-chain constraints for EUV light sources.

Sources

IZZF