Aura Group says Australia jobless rate rises to 4.6%, keeping RBA hike odds elevated
EWA•Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August as employment increased by 39,500 and labor-force participation reached 67.1%. Market pricing implied a 96% chance of an RBA rate rise at its September meeting.
1. Labor market cools
Aura Group’s weekly private credit note flagged a cooling Australian labor market in August, with unemployment rising to 4.6%. Employment still increased by 39,500, while the participation rate climbed to 67.1%, lifting joblessness as labor supply expanded.
2. Hiring and rate outlook
Part-time gains offset a smaller fall in full-time roles, signaling softer labor demand as firms cut hours rather than headcount. Market pricing implied a 96% chance of an RBA rate rise at the September meeting. Governor Michele Bullock indicated unemployment may need to rise toward 5% to ease domestic inflation pressure.
