Alcoa reported fourth-quarter revenue of $3.45 billion, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.24 billion by 6.34%. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.26, a 32.63% surprise above the consensus of $0.95 and up from $1.04 in Q4 2024. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, rose sequentially by $276 million to $546 million, driven by stronger realized aluminum prices and recognition of CO₂ compensation benefits in Spain and Norway.

In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue increased 3% sequentially as higher bauxite offtake agreements and alumina shipments supported growth. The Aluminum segment delivered a 21% sequential revenue gain, reflecting both elevated average realized pricing and higher shipment volumes. Production metrics improved quarter-on-quarter, with alumina output at 2.48 million metric tons (+1%) and aluminum output at 604 000 metric tons (+4%), partly due to the San Ciprián smelter restart in Spain.

At quarter end, Alcoa held a cash balance of $1.6 billion, supported by operating cash flow of $537 million in Q4. This liquidity position provides flexibility to fund ongoing productivity projects and smelter restarts while managing working capital. Management noted the absence of asset retirement obligation charges recorded in the prior quarter contributed positively to free cash flow generation in the period.

For fiscal 2026, Alcoa projects alumina production of 9.7–9.9 million metric tons and aluminum output of 2.4–2.6 million metric tons, driven by targeted productivity gains and additional smelter restarts. In Q1, the Alumina segment faces an estimated adjusted EBITDA headwind of $30 million due to seasonal maintenance and lower bauxite volumes, while the Aluminum segment anticipates a $70 million sequential EBITDA decline as carbon compensation benefits roll off and restart costs for San Ciprián accrue.