Trump's 10% Credit-Card Rate Cap Proposal Sends Bank of America Shares Down 1-2%
Bank of America shares fell between 1% and 2% Monday after President Trump called for a 10% cap on credit-card interest rates for one year. The proposal raises concerns over a potential reduction in the bank’s consumer lending income and net interest margin.
1. Impact of Proposed Credit Card Rate Cap on BAC
Following President Trump’s weekend proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, Bank of America shares declined by approximately 1.5% on Monday. Executives from the lender have warned that such a cap would force issuers to tighten lending standards, potentially leaving millions of customers without access to revolving credit. Internal risk models at Bank of America indicate that a 10% ceiling would cut credit card receivables by as much as 20%, translating into an estimated $8 billion reduction in outstanding balances and reducing funding for small-business lines of credit tied to its card platform.
2. Q4 Earnings Preview and 2026 Guidance Expectations
Bank of America is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on Wednesday, following JPMorgan’s Tuesday release. Analysts surveyed by StreetConsensus expect net interest income to come in near $14.2 billion—flat sequentially but up 5% year-over-year—driven by stable loan yields on a $950 billion loan book. Trading revenue is forecast at $2.1 billion, while investment banking fees could rise 8% to around $1.3 billion. Investors will pay close attention to the firm’s outlook for 2026, particularly projections for expense growth (expected to be capped at 3%) and return on tangible common equity, which management targets in the mid-teens percentage range.
3. Broader Sector Momentum and BAC’s Position
Bank of America has benefited from an industry-wide pickup in loan origination, with domestic consumer balances rising over 6% year-to-date and commercial loan growth accelerating to an annualized pace of 7%. The bank’s capital markets segment has also seen positive momentum, with fixed-income trading volumes up 12% in the fourth quarter compared with the prior period. With a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 11.9%—well above regulatory requirements—and disciplined expense management holding noninterest expense growth below 2%, Bank of America is positioned to capitalize on a permissive regulatory environment and higher interest rate spreads into 2026.