Banks including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Commerzbank raised their Brent price forecasts this week, as persistent disruptions to Middle East shipping tightened oil markets and drove crude prices to multi-week highs.
- Commerzbank on Friday raised its year-end Brent oil price forecast to $85 per barrel from its previous forecast of $75/bbl.
- Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price forecasts by $5 a barrel for December 2026 and 2027, citing an expectation that shipping disruptions in the Middle East will persist into next year.
- The bank in a note said that Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel if average Gulf oil output in 2027 remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, compared with its base case assumption of a 0.5 million bpd shortfall.
- It also noted that Brent crude could fall into the $60s in 2027 under a downside price scenario in which average Gulf oil output rises 1 million bpd above pre-war levels.
- HSBC on Tuesday raised its 2026 and 2027 Brent price forecasts to $90 and $85 a barrel, respectively.
- "We think the market is adjusting to a disrupted 'new normal' in which the strait is neither fully closed nor fully open, but persistently impaired," HSBC said in a note, referring to the Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
- HSBC said it does not expect the market to return to balance until around mid-2027, implying further inventory drawdowns in coming quarters.
- Bank of America also raised its Brent forecast to $83 a barrel for the second half of this year and $75 for 2027, according to a note dated Monday.
- "More disruptions could push it toward $120/bbl, while vast energy infra damage could drive prices to $150/bbl," BofA said, adding that its central view assumes Hormuz flows gradually normalize and a prolonged conflict is avoided.
- Oil prices were on track on Friday to end the week above $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-May and U.S. diesel prices hit a record high.
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