Barclays strategist Jonathan Millar warns that markets currently assign roughly 25% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in December, terming this view as mispriced without evidence of sustained core inflation acceleration. The team argues the risk is skewed toward an extended policy hold rather than further hikes, noting market-implied 5–10-year inflation expectations have drifted lower and the University of Michigan’s long-term gauge remains at 3.2%. Barclays projects the Fed’s next moves will be 25-basis-point cuts in September 2026 and March 2027, contingent on continued disinflation, and cautions that elevated oil prices alone are unlikely to delay easing.

Energy analyst Amarpreet Singh highlights ongoing supply disruptions stemming from the U.S.-Iran war as a key vulnerability in the oil market, pointing to potential spikes in price volatility. Singh underscores that elevated geopolitical tensions could further tighten global supply, raising risks for commodity-linked trading desks and potentially affecting Barclays’ energy sector exposures.