Barclays Forecasts $200B Humanoid Robot Market by 2035, China Leads Deployments
Barclays Research predicts humanoid robot market could reach $200 billion by 2035, powered by AI, mobility and falling production costs. China accounted for 85% of deployments in 2025 and could fill 60% of its workforce gap from aging population, boosting productivity and long-term asset returns.
1. Market Forecast and Growth Drivers
Barclays Research predicts the humanoid robot market could reach $200 billion by 2035, driven by advances in AI, mobility and battery technology that lower production costs and enable robots to perform full jobs rather than isolated tasks.
2. China’s Dominance in Deployments
China accounted for 85% of humanoid robot deployments in 2025, leveraging unmatched manufacturing scale, deep supply chains and state-backed policy to potentially fill 60% of its workforce gap from an aging population by 2035.
3. Productivity and Economic Impacts
Humanoid robots extend automation beyond specific tasks to entire roles, easing constraints associated with the Baumol effect by increasing labour-capital substitutability across services and manufacturing sectors.
4. Implications for Asset Returns
The expansion of physical AI into the real economy could expand the production frontier, supporting higher equilibrium real rates, stronger corporate earnings growth and improved long-term asset returns.