Barclays Raises Sandisk Price Target as Shares Surge Past Analysts’ Estimates
Barclays increased its price target on SanDisk, triggering another significant uptick in the stock’s trading volume as investors scramble to adjust positions. The rapid share appreciation has outpaced analysts’ ability to update earnings and valuation models, highlighting potential volatility in coming sessions.
1. Strong Q1 Financial Performance Exceeds Expectations
SanDisk reported Q1 revenue of $2.31 billion, surpassing consensus estimates by 9% and marking a 22.6% year-over-year increase. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $1.22, beating analyst forecasts by $0.64. Management attributed the upside to robust demand from hyperscale cloud customers and tighter supply conditions across key NAND flash segments. Gross margin expanded by 450 basis points sequentially, driven by favorable product mix and initial benefits from manufacturing cost reductions.
2. NAND Pricing Upcycle Poised to Boost Q2 Margins
Industry data show NAND contract prices rose approximately 33–38% in Q4 2025, a trend poised to accelerate entering Q2. SanDisk’s average selling prices are expected to follow this upcycle, supporting further margin expansion. Analysts draw parallels with the mid-2023 memory cycle that propelled peer profitability. SanDisk’s fab utilization rates climbed to over 95% last quarter, setting the stage for another quarter of tight supply–driven pricing leverage.
3. Q2 Guidance Is the Key Investor Focus
SanDisk has set Q2 revenue guidance between $3.00 billion and $3.40 billion, with non-GAAP EPS expected in a comparable range to Q1 after seasonal effects. A midpoint forecast above sell-side consensus of roughly $2.72 billion in revenue and $3.84 EPS would signal an accelerated ramp by hyperscalers and validate management’s confidence in sustaining strong order momentum. Investors will closely scrutinize channel inventory levels and end-market adoption rates for AI workloads as confirmation of durable demand.