Bernstein Keeps $130 Target After Robinhood’s Q1 Crypto Revenue Falls 47%
Robinhood's Q1 revenue dipped to $1.1 billion, missing estimates by 7% as crypto-driven revenue plunged 47%, sending shares tumbling 11%. Bernstein reaffirmed an outperform rating with a $130 target, citing stabilizing crypto markets, a mid-2026 launch of its Rothera prediction markets exchange and $1.8 billion buyback capacity.
1. Q1 Financial Results
Robinhood reported Q1 revenue of $1.1 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase but 7% below analyst estimates, driven by a 47% decline in crypto revenue. Adjusted EPS of $0.39 missed expectations by nearly 10%, while transaction-based revenue rose to $623 million and prediction markets trading surged 320% to $147 million.
2. Bernstein Rating & Outlook
Bernstein maintained its outperform rating with a $130 price target, forecasting 2026 EPS of $2.65, 23% above consensus. The firm cited signs of crypto stabilization, a rebound in token trading and strong momentum in prediction markets.
3. Buyback & Share Performance
Shares plunged 11% post-earnings after the revenue and EPS miss. Management has repurchased over $300 million of stock year-to-date and expanded its buyback authorization to $1.5 billion to support the share price.
4. Strategic Initiatives
Robinhood expects to launch its Rothera prediction markets exchange in mid-2026 and reports over 90% of employees actively using AI tools. The company continues to scale its banking services, credit card offerings and pursue international expansion in Canada and Singapore.