Bernstein Lifts Home Depot Target to $381, Cuts Q4 Sales Forecast
Bernstein raised its Home Depot target price by 5.2% to $381 while maintaining a Market Perform rating ahead of the Q4 earnings release. The firm also trimmed its Q4 same-store sales growth forecast by 40–50 basis points due to a recent snowstorm’s disruption of home improvement activity.
1. Analyst Raises Target Price
On February 18, Bernstein upped Home Depot’s price target from $362 to $381, representing a 5.2% increase, while keeping its Market Perform rating. The adjustment signals tempered optimism ahead of the company’s Q4 2025 earnings release scheduled for February 24.
2. Q4 Same-Store Sales Forecast Cut
Bernstein lowered its forecast for Q4 same-store sales growth by 40–50 basis points to account for a significant snowstorm that likely hindered homebuilding and improvement activity across key regions. This revision reflects concerns that the weather disruption will meaningfully depress comparable-store metrics.
3. Competitor Performance Context
Early reports from industry peers illustrate the broader weakness: Floor & Décor saw a 4.8% YoY same-store sales decline in January, while Builders FirstSource reported a 13.0% drop in core organic net sales for Q4, with multi-family and single-family segments down 20.4% and 15.4%, respectively.