Bernstein Lowers IREN Target to $100, Projects $6B AI Cloud Revenue by 2030
Bernstein cut IREN’s price target from $125 to $100 while projecting AI cloud revenue will reach $6B by 2030 and EBITDA near $5B. Under a five-year Microsoft deal for 77,000 GPUs generating $1.94B annualized revenue, IREN has secured $5.8B in Nvidia processors and $3.6B financing covering 95% of buildout costs.
1. Price Target Revision and Rationale
Bernstein reduced IREN’s target from $125 to $100, citing a share count increase and the scheduled wind-down of Bitcoin mining rather than any setback in AI cloud ambitions. The firm maintained IREN as its top AI-focused Bitcoin miner pick, emphasizing unchanged growth prospects.
2. Microsoft Five-Year GPU Contract
IREN has committed 77,000 of its 150,000 GPUs to Microsoft under a five-year agreement anchored by approximately $1.94 billion in annualized revenue. The company markets remaining GPU capacity to on-demand cloud customers and has already secured $400 million in contracts as of February.
3. Financing and Long-Term Projections
To fund its AI cloud expansion, IREN signed a $5.8 billion purchase agreement with Dell for Nvidia GB300 processors and arranged $3.6 billion in GPU-backed financing at under 6% interest. Bernstein forecasts AI cloud revenues reaching $2.6 billion in 2027 and climbing to $6 billion by 2030, with adjusted EBITDA margins near 82%.
4. Bitcoin Mining Wind-Down and Valuation
Bernstein’s model assigns zero value to IREN’s legacy Bitcoin operations, expecting mining revenue to fall to zero by fiscal 2030 as hardware is replaced with GPU racks. The company’s 4.5 gigawatts of power holdings and 3.6 gigawatts of undeveloped capacity valued at $3 million per megawatt contribute roughly $10.8 billion to its sum-of-the-parts valuation.