Merck Sees 2026 Revenue at $65.5-67B, EPS Guidance at $5.00-5.15
Merck delivered better-than-expected Q4 results and projected 2026 revenues of $65.5-$67.0 billion with adjusted EPS of $5.00-$5.15. This outlook misses prior consensus by $0.36 billion in sales and $1.05 in EPS after a $9 billion acquisition charge, despite 7% Keytruda and 9% Animal Health growth offset by $2.5 billion headwinds.
1. Q4 Results and 2026 Guidance
Merck reported Q4 results that beat analyst estimates and issued 2026 guidance forecasting revenues of $65.5-$67.0 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.00-$5.15. Both figures fall short of prior consensus estimates of $67.36 billion in sales and $6.20 in EPS.
2. Growth Drivers
The company expects continued momentum from its oncology portfolio, led by Keytruda, which posted $31.7 billion in 2025 sales, up 7% year-over-year, along with higher contributions from newly launched drugs such as Winrevair ($1.4 billion) and Capvaxive ($759 million), and a 9% increase in its Animal Health segment to $6.4 billion.
3. Headwinds and Charges
Guidance includes a one-time $9 billion, or $3.65 per share, charge related to the Cidara Therapeutics acquisition. Management anticipates approximately $2.5 billion of headwinds from generic competition, IRA pricing effects and a revised AstraZeneca deal on Koselugo.
4. Outlook Beyond 2026
Merck is banking on strong uptake of Ohtuvayre in COPD and further indication expansions for Keytruda, while preparing for Keytruda’s 2028 patent expiry. The company’s robust pipeline and recent M&A aim to offset mid-term exclusivity losses and sustain growth.