Bernstein Reaffirms Outperform on Gilead, Sees Under $200M Medicaid Impact
Bernstein SocGen reaffirmed its Outperform rating and $135 target on Gilead Sciences, citing that only 60% of its portfolio will align with MFN Medicaid pricing and that Genvoya and Odefsey drove about $750M in Medicaid gross spend in 2023. It projects a 2026 revenue impact below $200M, representing low-single-digit downside.
1. Market Underperformance in Latest Session
Gilead Sciences shares declined by 1.38% in the most recent trading session, underperforming the broader biotech index. This pullback follows a period in which the stock had traded near its 52-week high of $128.70, with the 50-day moving average at $122.99 and the 200-day moving average at $116.80. The company’s beta of 0.32 suggests lower volatility relative to the market, but today’s move highlights sensitivity to sector rotation and investor profit-taking.
2. Abacus FCF Advisors Trims Stake and Institutional Moves
In its latest Form 13F filing, Abacus FCF Advisors reduced its position in Gilead by 16.0%, selling 26,340 shares and ending the quarter with 138,674 shares, representing 2.0% of the firm’s overall holdings and ranking Gilead as its 24th largest stake. The position was valued at $15.4 million on the reporting date. Meanwhile, Norges Bank established a new stake worth approximately $2.15 billion in the second quarter. Ameriprise Financial increased its holdings by 397.6% to 6.75 million shares, and Invesco added 3.39 million shares, raising its position by 33.5%. Assenagon Asset Management boosted its stake by 164.4% with the addition of 2.17 million shares in the third quarter.
3. Insider Sales Reflect Moderation in Ownership
Over the past ninety days, insiders have sold a collective 126,257 shares of Gilead stock, valued at roughly $15.6 million. On December 15, senior executive Johanna Mercier disposed of 3,000 shares, a 2.75% reduction in her holdings, and on November 28, director Jeffrey Bluestone sold 5,000 shares, cutting his stake by 35.9%. Insider ownership now stands at 0.27% of the float, underscoring a modest scaling back by key management figures.
4. Recent Earnings Beat, Guidance and Analyst Commentary
In the quarter ended September 30, Gilead reported revenue of $7.77 billion, up 3.0% year-over-year, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.47, beating consensus by $0.31. Net margin was 27.9% and return on equity reached 51.9%. Management set full-year 2025 EPS guidance at 8.05–8.25, above last year’s $8.00 result and consensus forecasts of $7.95. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.79 per share, representing a 2.5% yield and a payout ratio of 49.0%. Bernstein has reaffirmed an Outperform rating after confirming that Medicaid pricing adjustments will primarily affect products generating $750 million in 2023 spend, and estimates the 2026 revenue impact will be under $200 million.