Bernstein Sees Kalshi $40B, Polymarket $15B as M&A Targets for Robinhood
HOOD•Bernstein's team forecasts a wave of M&A in prediction markets, citing Kalshi's $40B valuation and Polymarket's $15B valuation as prime takeover targets. Robinhood has executed $16B of event-contract trades this year, strengthening its position to pursue acquisitions.
1. Bernstein M&A Outlook
Bernstein analysts led by Ian Moore predict a surge in mergers and acquisitions within the prediction-market sector as major players seek to integrate sports betting and consumer finance. The note highlights that firms controlling exchange technology will attract takeover interest from diversified online brokers.
2. Valuations of Kalshi and Polymarket
Kalshi recently secured a $40 billion valuation ahead of its expected 2026–2027 IPO, while Polymarket holds a $15 billion valuation with its own public offering anticipated. Both platforms own proprietary trading stacks but lack extensive user distribution networks.
3. Implications for Robinhood
Robinhood has facilitated $16 billion in event-contract trading this year, positioning it alongside Coinbase and DraftKings as a likely bidder. Acquiring established prediction-market exchanges could reduce promotional spending, drive operational efficiencies and broaden Robinhood’s product ecosystem.
