BHP shares have surged 29% over the past six months, propelled by record iron ore production of 296 million tonnes in fiscal 2025 and an expanding copper portfolio that contributed 22% of underlying EBITDA in the most recent quarter. Robust free cash flow of $10.8 billion year-to-date has underpinned the company’s industry-leading dividend, which currently yields close to 8%, reinforcing BHP’s appeal to income-seeking investors.

With benchmark copper prices trading above $10,000 per tonne, BHP’s copper operations in Escondida and Spence have generated 15% year-on-year volume growth, positioning the company to capitalize on global supply deficits. The strong cash inflows from copper have enabled management to maintain capital discipline—delaying the multi-billion-dollar Jansen potash expansion, divesting $2 billion of non-core Pilbara iron ore assets and raising its net debt target to fund future growth without diluting shareholder returns.

NicKEL prices at $18,500 per tonne currently fail to cover Western Australia unit costs, prompting BHP to keep its nickel expansion plans on hold until a reassessment scheduled for February 2027. Meanwhile, the Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan remains a strategic pivot: Stage 1 is forecast to deliver over $1.5 billion of EBITDA at steady state, with Stage 2 set to further diversify BHP’s commodity mix beyond traditional bulk materials.