BHP Warns of 2035 Potash Deficit as Jansen Costs Surge to $8.4B
BHP forecasts global potash demand rising 2%–3% annually with supply additions constrained outside its Jansen project, potentially pushing the market into a deficit by 2035. The Jansen mine, slated to start mid-2027 with 4.1 Mtpa ramp-up and a potential 8.5 Mtpa second phase, has seen first-phase costs swell to $8.4 billion.
1. Potash Demand Growth and Supply Outlook
BHP projects annual potash demand growth of 2%–3% through the next decade, forecasting that limited new supply outside the Jansen project and ongoing geopolitical disruptions could drive the global market into a deficit by 2035.
2. Jansen Project Timeline and Capacity
The Jansen underground potash mine in Saskatchewan is scheduled to begin production in mid-2027, ramping up to 4.1 million tonnes per annum within two years. A planned second phase could lift capacity to approximately 8.5 million tonnes early in the next decade.
3. Cost Overruns Impact
Development costs for Jansen’s first phase have risen to $8.4 billion, exceeding original estimates and squeezing projected returns. BHP is evaluating cost-control measures and efficiency improvements to safeguard project economics.
4. Market Targeting Strategy
BHP is working to convert preliminary agreements into binding contracts ahead of startup, focusing on Brazil—which accounts for roughly 20% of global potash demand—as well as Southeast Asia, China, India and the US to secure offtake for Jansen volumes.