Bitcoin’s 50% Plunge and ETF Outflows Pressure Coinbase; $350 Price Target Set
Bitcoin plunged 50% since October, triggering $2.7B in liquidations and $6.2B in ETF outflows that erased Coinbase’s U.S. spot premium and signaled sustained structural selling pressure. H.C. Wainwright set a $350 price target for Coinbase, projecting 67% upside as institutional volumes hit 81% and subscription revenues are forecast at $710–790M.
1. Bitcoin Plunge Triggers Massive Liquidations
Bitcoin has shed nearly 50% of its value since October, falling below November 2024 levels and triggering over $2.7 billion in liquidations in early February, marking its steepest drawdown since 2022. Compressed volatility and leveraged positions exacerbated the sell-off.
2. ETF Outflows and Structural Selling Weigh on Coinbase
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $6.2 billion in cumulative net outflows since November, erasing Coinbase’s U.S. spot premium and forcing additional spot selling in a reflexive downside loop. Basis rates remain unstable and digital asset treasuries sit on roughly $25 billion in unrealized losses.
3. H.C. Wainwright Sets $350 Price Target
H.C. Wainwright set a $350 price target for Coinbase, implying 67% upside from current levels as institutional trading now represents 81% of volume dollars. Subscription revenues are projected between $710 million and $790 million, while Q4 revenue is estimated at $1.9 billion, up 18.8%, with EPS forecast to fall 66.1%.