Paul outlines two ‘steelman’ scenarios: one where the cycle top has passed, setting the stage for further downside, and another where the current downturn is a high‐timeframe correction within a broader macro uptrend driven by speculative capital and niche adoption.

He highlights a risk of bitcoin sliding to $15,000–$40,000 before any sustained advance, advocating a moderate crypto allocation to capture asymmetric upside while managing potential downside.

Prolonged price stagnation could deplete block rewards that fund network security and reduce transaction‐fee revenues, increasing financial pressure on exchange operators such as Coinbase.