BMO Raises Marathon Petroleum Price Target to $225, Lifts 2026 EBITDA Forecast
BMO Capital raised Marathon Petroleum’s price target to $225 from $200 and maintained an Outperform rating after Q4 2025 results exceeded expectations and stock traded near its 52-week high. The firm lifted 2026 EBITDA forecasts by 3% and cash flow estimates by 2%, while projecting 5% midstream EBITDA growth.
1. BMO Capital Upgrades Price Target & Rating
BMO Capital increased Marathon Petroleum’s price target to $225 from $200 and retained its Outperform rating, noting shares approached a 52-week high following stronger-than-expected Q4 2025 results and upbeat Q1 2026 guidance.
2. Strong Refining Performance Boosts Forecasts
Marathon’s refining segment produced earnings per share of $13.22 over the past year with a P/E ratio of 15.42, prompting a 3% increase in 2026 EBITDA forecasts and a 2% uplift in cash flow estimates driven by refining strength.
3. Midstream Outlook & MPLX Projections
While midstream estimates were trimmed slightly, MPLX pipeline projects are expected to deliver 5% EBITDA growth and double-digit distribution growth, supporting the firm’s positive outlook on Marathon’s integrated operations.
4. Valuation Range & Business Segments
BMO values Marathon Petroleum between $215 and $235, citing its advantaged U.S. refining footprint across Refining & Marketing, Midstream pipelines, and Renewable Diesel production as key drivers of long-term value.