BNP Paribas Predicts Microsoft Copilot Sales Above 25 Million Seats
MSFT•BNP Paribas projects Microsoft’s Copilot bookings for fiscal Q4 could exceed 25 million seats, citing improved AI assistant capabilities and recent customer wins like the NHS England deal. The firm noted Microsoft is exploring a hybrid seat-and-usage billing model while maintaining a Buy rating.
1. Analyst Upgrade and Rating
BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski maintained a Buy rating on Microsoft and reiterated a $555 price target, emphasizing that demonstrated improvements in Copilot over the past year justify upward revisions to sales forecasts.
2. Copilot Performance and Deals
After meetings with Microsoft executives, Slowinski highlighted key deals, including the NHS England contract, as evidence of rising enterprise demand and stronger traction for Copilot seat deployments.
3. Billing Model Evolution and Estimates
The note explained that Microsoft is considering a billing shift from pure seat-based pricing to a combined seat-and-usage structure, which could lift fiscal Q4 bookings above the consensus estimate of 25 million seats.
