BoE to raise rates to 4% in November, but economists narrowly expect hold from there
TLT•TLT•TLT•TLT•A majority of economists polled expect the Bank of England to raise its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in November. There was no majority for a further increase beyond next month.
Fifty-four of 63 economists polled between October 12 and 14 forecast a 25-basis-point increase in November, the first in more than three years. In last month’s poll, about 90% expected rates to remain on hold for the rest of the year.
Thirty of 61 economists expected another rate increase in the first quarter of 2027, but there was no majority view on further moves. Markets were pricing in four quarter-point increases by the end of next year. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill pushed back against market expectations for a series of hikes.
Economists forecast inflation to average 3.6% this quarter and 3.8% next quarter, up from last month’s forecasts of 3.3% and 3.2%. They revised this year’s growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.1%, while leaving forecasts for 2027 and 2028 at 1.2% and 1.5%.
